心果 / Pistacho / Pistache / Pistacchio / Pistazie / An tep fistigi
USA. The 2019/2020 US pistachio crop was an “off-year”, yielding roughly 339,000 metric tons (747 million lbs.). Harvest started slightly later this year, by about a week, due to cool temperatures. Chill and conditions for the 2020/21 crop have been positive, with an “on-year” estimate between 363,000
metric tons (800 million lbs.) and a high of 544,000 metric tons (1.2 billion lbs.) with increased acreage.
Global demand, which saw record setting US shipments last year of over 363,000 metric tons (800 million LB), is anticipated to remain strong. However, US shipments are expected to be lower this year in comparison to last year due to several factors: lower 2019/2020 supply resulting from the “off-year”,a relatively low carry-over inventory, the increase in Iranian supply, additional tariffs between China and US, and the impact of COVID-19 particularly in the export market. There was increased demand in both US and European retail in the early stages of COVID-19. However, with recent shipments beginning to slow down, expectations are that consumer demand will normalize during the next several months. Year to date US shipments are in line to finish with estimates of
281,000 metric tons (620 million lbs.).
Iran. Iran Pistachio Association’s early guestimate of the 2020 crop is 170,000 MT of pistachios. With an estimated carry-over of 50,000 MT from the 2019 crop, Iran’s gross inventory at the beginning of marketing year 2020/2021 is projected to reach 220,000 MT of pistachios.
In-shell export volume through March stayed at around 100,000 MT, which shows a 22% decline compared to crop year 2017 (the last on-year crop with similar starting inventory). On top of the market disruptions brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, factors such as late harvest, government-imposed foreign exchange restrictions, limitations on logistics and monetary transfers have had a negative impact on Iranian exports. However, shipments to main destination markets, especially the Far East and the
Indian Subcontinent, are expected to grow significantly given the attractive price of Iranian pistachios and the gradual global recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Kernel shipments (14,000 MT through March) showed a growing trend.
Although total domestic consumption is expected to remain unchanged, at around 15% of the annual production, local demand of kernels as an ingredient is experiencing an upward trend as well.
Turkey. Season 2020/21 is going to be an on year for Turkish pistachio and a historical record season is anticipated. Early forecast is estimated at around 325,000 MT in-shell basis, 4 times above the 2019/20 crop.
The ongoing off season caused very high prices in the export market. Some corrections were observed time to time, mostly effected by dollar/lira currency changes. Due to COVID-19, many export markets have been slowed down.
However, since dollar/lira rates were expected to remain high, at the time of this report, and with the support of the upcoming huge crop, a brilliant year for export market was anticipated.
Spain. Abundant spring rains might have affected effective pollination. However, based on the fruit setting samples observed at the orchards, the 2020/21 crop is expected to reach around 2,500 MT. Although last season was an on year, this one will not become a fully off year, since trees have reserves. Moreover, the crop decrease compared to 2019/20 will be offset and, even increased, due to the new hectares starting to bear fruit and the young trees enlarging their production.
Estimated World Pistachio Production. In-shell Basis. Metric Tons
|Country||Beginning Stock||Crop||Total Supply||Ending Stock||Beginning Stock||Crop||Total Supply||Ending Stock|
|USA (MM lbs)||95||747||842||95||95||1200||1294||95|
|WORLD TOTAL 165,000 662,600 827,600||169000||169000||1078600||1247600||183000|
|WORLD CONSUMPTION (T. Supply - End. Stock)||658600||1064600|